April 20 Is the Inflection Point for Tariff Refunds, But the $166 Billion Question Remains

Featuring insights from industry veteran, George Lorenze

With CBP’s tariff refund system set to go live on April 20, importers are entering a critical transition period.

Even though the IEEPA tariffs were declared unconstitutional, tariffs are here to stay. They are not going away.

They will be replaced by new tariffs under a different name or a different section of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule. Across the industry, it is widely accepted that the chaos and uncertainty created by the IEEPA tariffs will not end simply because of a court ruling.

That perspective is reinforced by what trade attorneys and industry experts are saying. Recent FreightWaves coverage makes it clear that “the end of IEEPA tariffs doesn’t mean the end of tariffs,” with future duties expected under more traditional authorities like Sections 232, 301, and 201.

The structure may change, but the strategy remains.

The $166 Billion Question

The more immediate issue is not whether tariffs will continue. It is what happens to the ones that have already been paid.

Roughly 330,000 importers have collectively paid an estimated $166 billion in tariffs that the Supreme Court has now ruled unconstitutional.

So what happens next as the system prepares to go live? How will that $166 billion be refunded?

That is the great unknown. And it remains very unclear.

More than a month after the ruling, companies are still trying to determine the right course of action. According to Supply Chain Dive, many are “taking a variety of approaches… and hoping for the best,” which reflects just how little clarity exists around the process.

Some companies are filing lawsuits. Others are submitting administrative claims. Many are waiting for more guidance ahead of April 20.

As one trade attorney put it, “No one really knows for certain what they should be doing because the Supreme Court was completely silent on the whole refund process.”

Who Controls the Refund Process?

There is also confusion about who is responsible for refunds.

The Supreme Court ruled on constitutionality, but it will not oversee how refunds are issued. That responsibility falls to the Court of International Trade.

The CIT has already directed U.S. Customs and Border Protection to refund all improperly collected duties, with interest, and to do so quickly.

The directive is straightforward. The execution is not.

There are still major open questions. Will refunds be automatic or require action? Will they apply broadly or only to companies that filed claims? Who ultimately receives the money when costs were passed through the supply chain?

That last point is already creating friction. Supply Chain Dive reporting notes that the importer of record may not be the party that actually absorbed the cost, which raises the potential for disputes and even lawsuits between supply chain partners.

A System Not Built for This Scale

CBP has said it intends to process refunds electronically through its Automated Commercial Environment, supported by a new system called CAPE.

The challenge is scale.

Processing refunds tied to IEEPA tariffs means reviewing tens of millions of entries. FreightWaves reporting notes that manual processing could require reviewing more than 70 million entries, which highlights how complex this effort will be.

CBP is building out new capabilities to manage this, but the system is still in development as April 20 approaches.

Recent updates indicate that CAPE is between 60 percent and 85 percent complete. The first phase will focus on recently liquidated entries, with additional capabilities added later to handle more complex cases.

April 20 is the Inflection Point

CBP has told the Court of International Trade that its updated system and initial refund process will be ready by April 20.

That is the key date to watch.

Even if the system goes live on time, refunds will not be immediate. CBP has already revised its expected timeline. Earlier estimates suggested refunds could be issued within 45 days. The agency now says it will take between 60 and 90 days after a request is submitted, and longer if compliance reviews are required.

For importers, April 20 is not the end of the process. It is the beginning of it.

Why This Will Not Be Quick

The scale of these refunds is unprecedented.

For comparison, prior large scale refund cases involved only a few billion dollars and took years to resolve. IEEPA related refunds are estimated at $166 billion.

There are also procedural challenges.

Not all entries will be eligible in the first phase. Some importers will need to file protests within strict deadlines. Others may need to pursue litigation to preserve their claims.

FreightWaves reporting emphasizes that importers typically have 180 days after liquidation to file a protest, making it critical to track timelines closely.

This is not a passive process. Missing a deadline could mean losing the ability to recover funds.

What Importers Should Do Now

In the days leading up to April 20, importers need to stay actively engaged.

That starts with working closely with trade attorneys and customs brokers to monitor developments and interpret guidance as it evolves.

It also means preparing internally. Companies should be identifying all imports affected by IEEPA tariffs, organizing documentation, and ensuring they are ready to submit claims when the system becomes available.

As Kelsey Christensen, an international trade attorney, advised, “Organize, organize, organize… it is vital for companies to identify all of their imports… and gather entry documentation.”

Waiting for clarity without preparing is a risk.

What Happens Next

The ruling on IEEPA tariffs did not eliminate uncertainty. It shifted it.

Tariffs will continue under different authorities. Trade policy will remain fluid. And the process of recovering $166 billion will be complex and time consuming.

April 20 is the next milestone. It is not the finish line.

Importers should expect continued uncertainty and plan accordingly.

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