IA Insights: February 23, 2026

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Trade Policy & Tariffs

• The Supreme Court ruling that President Trump lacked authority under IEEPA to impose broad global tariffs has invalidated levies in place since April, triggering potential refunds of hundreds of billions of dollars to importers and prompting the administration to pursue alternative tools including a 10% Section 122 global surcharge and other statutory authorities to preserve tariff policy objectives.
  
  
• The administration’s new 10% global tariff under Section 122, which the president has signaled could rise to 15%, will remain in effect for up to 150 days with exemptions for select sectors and free trade partners, while Section 301 investigations accelerate and longer-term replacement duties are considered following the Court’s decision.
  
  
• The newly formalized U.S.-Indonesia reciprocal trade agreement caps tariffs on Indonesian goods at 19% and expands market access commitments on agriculture, critical minerals and industrial products, but its durability is uncertain after the Supreme Court invalidated the statutory basis previously used for country-specific tariffs.
  
  
• Analysis of the post-ruling tariff landscape shows the effective U.S. tariff rate falling from roughly 16% to 13.7% under the temporary 15% levy and potentially to 9.1% if it expires, cutting projected federal tariff revenue in half while raising questions about refunds of more than $133 billion already collected and the broader economic impact on consumers and business investment.
  
  

Ocean & Global Air Cargo

• Trans-Pacific carriers and U.S. importers are slow-walking 2026–27 service contract negotiations as Asia–U.S. West Coast spot rates have fallen more than 20% since January, capacity remains ample, and both sides await post-TPM clarity on demand and pricing direction in what many describe as a shippers’ market.
  
  
• Escalating capacity management tactics and worsening port productivity are undermining global schedule reliability even as the Gemini Cooperation touts better-than-80% on-time performance, with carriers balancing profitability against rising congestion, weather disruptions and customer pressure to embed reliability metrics into 2026 contract tenders.
  
  
• An earlier Lunar New Year drove a 7% year-over-year increase in January global air cargo volumes, yet average spot rates slipped 1% to $2.56 per kilogram as e-commerce exports from China to the U.S. continued to contract sharply under the de minimis ban and modal shifts tied to Red Sea routing remain uncertain.
  
  

Parcel Logistics

• FedEx’s commitment to return its grounded MD-11 fleet to service despite FAA inspections following November’s fatal crash contrasts with UPS’s decision to retire its aircraft, underscoring FedEx’s plan to operate the aging freighters through 2032 while absorbing near-term capacity replacement costs.
  
  
• FedEx’s refined e-commerce strategy prioritizes long-haul, heavyweight and cross-border shipments while conceding low-margin lightweight parcels, expanding surcharges domestically and internationally, and leveraging returns logistics and value-added services to drive higher yields in the $95 billion B2C market.
  
  
• UPS’s identification of 22 union-staffed sortation centers for closure as part of its Network of the Future consolidation plan reflects efforts to align capacity with declining volumes, decouple from Amazon business and eliminate 30,000 positions while restructuring its footprint over a multiyear horizon.
  
  
• A federal judge’s refusal to block UPS’s $150,000 driver buyout program clears the way for a voluntary separation initiative that could see up to 10,000 Teamsters resign, as the carrier seeks to reduce headcount amid falling parcel volumes while the union challenges the program’s contractual validity.
  
  

Truckload Market & Non-Domiciled CDL Updates

• Truckload carriers are signaling a tightening supply environment driven by fleet reductions, a shift toward dedicated contracts, heightened regulatory enforcement of non-domiciled CDLs and English proficiency rules, and constrained tractor production, with mid-single-digit contract rate increases emerging as a baseline expectation for 2026 bid season.
  
  
• US shippers negotiating 2026 truckload contracts are reassessing exposure to non-domiciled CDL enforcement, English proficiency scrutiny and cargo theft risks, prompting some to shift freight toward asset-based carriers, tighten SLA language and demand greater transparency on third-party vetting as regulatory and reputational risk becomes a more explicit factor in capacity decisions.
  
  
• FMCSA’s new enforcement directives mandate immediate revocation and reissuance of non-compliant non-domiciled CDLs, restrict eligible immigration statuses, tighten in-person issuance rules and impose strict 48-hour documentation deadlines, signaling an aggressive federal posture toward driver credential compliance.
  
  
• A multi-state FMCSA sting targeting fraudulent CDL training providers has issued removal notices to more than 550 schools following over 1,400 inspections, intensifying efforts to eliminate “CDL mills” and tighten entry standards amid broader regulatory scrutiny of driver qualification pipelines.
  
  

Rail & Intermodal

• Canadian Pacific Kansas City’s CEO warned investors that the proposed $85 billion Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger faces significant regulatory and operational hurdles after the STB deemed the initial filing incomplete, arguing the scale of the combination poses systemic risk beyond prior end-to-end consolidations.
  
  
• Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern have reset their timeline to refile a revised merger application by April 30 following the STB’s rejection of their initial submission, extending regulatory uncertainty around a proposed 53,000-mile transcontinental network.
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• ‍The Association of American Railroads’ 2026 outlook highlights uneven freight prospects as carloads excluding coal and grain rise modestly, intermodal volumes continue to decline, manufacturing indicators show tentative improvement, and macroeconomic uncertainty around trade policy, labor markets and interest rates tempers expectations for sustained growth.