.png)
Want these insights in your inbox each Monday? Subscribe here.
Macro & Trade: Uncertainty shapes planning
- Fed cuts rates again, but signals fewer moves ahead: The Federal Reserve trimmed rates by 25 basis points, citing labor market cooling — but projected just one cut in 2026. For shippers, cheaper capital may help manufacturing rebound, but policy uncertainty remains high.
- Manufacturers slow orders ahead of Supreme Court tariff ruling: U.S. manufacturers are pulling back on parts and raw material orders as they wait to see whether Trump-era tariffs survive legal challenges. The result: softer demand signals heading into 2026.
- Trade groups push for fast USMCA renewal: Retail, auto, apparel, and consumer goods groups are urging swift renewal of USMCA — plus updates to rules of origin, customs harmonization, and duty-free coverage — to support nearshoring and supply chain stability.
- U.S. to impose 15% tariff on Nicaragua imports: New Section 301 tariffs on non-CAFTA goods from Nicaragua will phase in starting 2027, adding another layer of trade complexity for apparel and CPG supply chains.
Ocean
- U.S. container volumes forecast to fall in 2026: S&P Global expects U.S. port container volumes to decline ~2% next year as tariffs and reshoring keep shippers cautious. A rebound isn’t expected until 2027.
- Maersk selects new CFO: Maersk on Friday announced a round of executive changes that include a new chief financial officer brought in from the forwarding world and the rotation of regional chiefs to new markets.
Air
- Air cargo acts as a ‘shock absorber’ amid trade disruption: Despite tariffs, trade lane shifts, and aircraft shortages, air cargo is holding up — but fleet constraints and geopolitical friction continue to limit flexibility.
- Unexpected ‘mini-peak’ lifts rates; visibility fades fast: Air cargo volumes and rates surprised to the upside late in 2025, but carriers warn that demand visibility beyond December is deteriorating.
- November air cargo volumes up, rates down: Global air cargo volumes rose 5% YoY in November, but spot rates fell 5% as carriers chased market share. Slowing China e-commerce raises questions about 2026 demand.
Road
- Truckload market stuck in neutral through Q4: RXO expects muted volumes and flat rates through year-end, with a more meaningful recovery potentially emerging in 2026 — dependent on manufacturing and demand recovery.
- Weather and compressed holidays push spot rates higher: Severe winter weather and a shortened holiday shopping season drove an unusually sharp early-December spike in truckload spot rates. Most analysts see this as seasonal, not structural.
- Study finds shippers leaving contracted capacity unused: New research shows shippers over-commit to contract freight — with up to 70% of contracted truckload capacity going unused — while still paying premiums on spot during disruptions.
- Feds call New York ‘worst offender’ for illegal CDLs: A federal audit found New York improperly issued over half of its non-domiciled commercial driver licenses. Crackdowns could tighten driver supply in key regions.
- DOT advisors propose freight tunnel, massive truck parking expansion: A private advisory panel floated plans for a Hudson River truck tunnel and 1,000 new truck parking facilities — aimed at easing congestion, boosting utilization, and improving safety.
- Carrier shifts and rebrands: Enterprise enters heavy-truck market with Hogan acquisition, Heartland rebrands CFI amid prolonged losses, and PGT expands west with Debrick acquisition.
Sustainability & innovation
- Peterbilt and Kenworth expand medium-duty EV lineups: PACCAR’s brands introduced new electric medium-duty trucks targeting regional delivery and vocational fleets.
- DHL deploys first Tesla Semi: DHL Supply Chain put its first Tesla Semi into service in California, signaling growing confidence in long-haul EV performance as part of its net-zero roadmap
