IA Insights: April 20, 2026

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Tariff Refunds 

• Importers can begin filing claims today for more than $160B in invalidated IEEPA tariffs through CBP’s new CAPE portal, with refunds expected within 60–90 days, though the initial phase is limited to recent or unliquidated entries and is expected to face heavy system demand and operational friction.
  
  
• The refund process will require significant documentation and coordination across finance, supply chain, and customs teams, with companies needing to validate entries, reconcile payments, and prepare for audit scrutiny as CBP reviews claims at scale.
  
  
• While the refunds represent a major cash opportunity, the ruling does not signal the end of tariffs, as the administration is already pursuing alternative mechanisms (Sections 232, 301, and others), ensuring continued trade policy volatility.  

Direct Effects of Iran War & Fuel Crisis

• Strait of Hormuz shipping has effectively halted, with vessels turning back and experts warning it could take six months or more to safely resume transit even after conflict ends—signaling prolonged disruption to global energy and trade flows.
  

• Diesel prices have declined after a 12-week run-up, but underlying supply disruption remains severe, with the largest oil supply shock in history continuing to pressure transportation costs.
  
  
• Airlines are cutting routes, delaying expansions, and seeking government support as jet fuel prices surge, making some routes economically unviable and tightening global capacity.
  
  
• Carriers are shifting Middle East cargo to transshipment hubs like Khor Fakkan as instability in the Gulf continues to disrupt traditional port calls.
  

Ocean Carriers & Trade Flows

• MSC is restructuring its Asia–U.S. East Coast services to improve reliability and reduce congestion exposure through revised port rotations and more direct routings.
  
  
• Apparel imports continue to decline amid weak demand and rising costs, with a “K-shaped” consumer environment driving divergence between premium and mid-market performance.  

Truckload & Intermodal

• DOT is withholding roughly $73M in federal funding from New York after an audit found more than 50% of non-domiciled CDLs were improperly issued, escalating enforcement actions that could further tighten driver supply and increase regulatory scrutiny across states.
  
  
• Truckload capacity tightening is increasingly viewed as structural, with regulatory changes and reduced driver availability pushing rates higher and signaling a freight market upcycle.
  
  
• Intermodal demand is strengthening as rising truckload rates, higher fuel costs, and tightening driver supply push more freight to rail, driving volume growth and record peaks in March while also creating the first real network stress test since COVID, with early signs of service pressure tied to driver availability and capacity constraints.
  
  
• Rail data shows commodity shipments outperforming intermodal, with strong growth in grain, petroleum, and chemicals while intermodal remains slightly down year-over-year.

Air Cargo

• UPS is expanding air hub capacity across Asia to support cross-border growth and improve transit times in key global trade lanes.
  

• FedEx pilots will vote on a new five-year contract following union endorsement, with the deal including roughly 40% pay increases and significant back pay, marking a major labor milestone that could raise operating costs across air cargo. 

Parcel Shipping

• USPS is enforcing stricter screening requirements for non-domiciled CDL drivers by May 1, a move aimed at improving safety but likely to further tighten capacity.
  
  
• Canada Post is planning to eliminate home delivery for millions of addresses and consolidate post offices as part of a long-term cost reduction strategy.
  
  
• Uber Eats is expanding into reverse logistics with a new retail returns service, reflecting growing demand for easier returns and continued last-mile disruption.
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• ‍UPS is investing in RFID tracking to eliminate up to 20 million manual scans per day, improving package visibility and reducing labor costs.