IA Insights: June 22, 2026

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‍Macro: Rates, Diesel, Policy & Trade

• The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.5%–3.75% and removed language pointing toward additional easing, signaling less certainty around future cuts even as officials projected the rate would end 2026 at 3.8%.
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• U.S. logistics costs fell to $2.4 trillion, or 7.8% of GDP, in 2025, but CSCMP panelists said shippers are no longer planning for a return to “normal” and are instead building more flexible networks to manage tariffs, energy shocks, AI infrastructure demand, and persistent disruption.
  
  
• The EU gave final approval to its U.S. tariff deal, with officials saying the bloc will remove tariffs and provide preferential market access for a range of U.S. goods by the end of the month.
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• New U.S. customs rules under President Trump are forcing shippers to reassess importer-of-record arrangements and supply chain visibility, with experts warning that companies need stronger documentation and compliance controls before the changes take effect.
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• The DOE/EIA benchmark diesel price fell 15.1 cents to $5.059/gallon after the U.S.-Iran peace deal, while the IEA forecast a mixed oil outlook: demand is weakening, but supply remains disrupted and inventories are still tight.

What’s going on with the Strait of Hormuz?

• The Strait of Hormuz began gradually reopening after a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, with Vice President JD Vance saying more than 12.5 million barrels of oil had moved through the strait since June 17 while vessels trapped since February began exiting.
  
  
• Iran announced plans to charge transit fees for ships using the Strait of Hormuz, adding new uncertainty to a reopening framework for one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.
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• Iran said it would close the Strait of Hormuz again ahead of renewed U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland, citing alleged violations of the earlier maritime-security agreement and creating renewed uncertainty for Gulf shipping.
  
  
• Current status: The Strait appears partially operational but not fully normalized: FT reports that more than 400 large ships are waiting near Sohar and Fujairah for a full reopening, while some vessels, including Qatari LNG tankers and the MSC Qingdao, have transited. 

Land: Trucking, LTL, Intermodal, Rail & Warehousing

• Rising truckload rates, higher fuel costs, and tighter driver capacity are pushing shippers back toward rail intermodal, with North American intermodal volume up 6% year over year in May and providers including J.B. Hunt, Schneider, BNSF, and Redwood Logistics pointing to better reliability and lower costs.
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• U.S. transportation pricing is rising faster than demand, with truckload and LTL PPIs both up more than 20% year over year as frontloaded imports, higher fuel costs, and carrier capacity exits create pricing pressure despite mixed freight-volume signals.
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• BNSF won Barstow City Council approval for its proposed $4 billion California intermodal hub, which the railroad says is central to the future of freight moving through the Southern California port complex.
  

• While U.S. industrial vacancy remains elevated overall, demand is tightening across key inland logistics hubs including Chicago, Indianapolis, Columbus, Kansas City, Memphis, Dallas, and Phoenix as shippers diversify distribution networks and expand multimodal options; Indianapolis has emerged as a standout market with 15.7 million square feet of net absorption versus 3.9 million square feet of new supply and industrial rents up more than 50% over the past five years.
  
  
• PepsiCo and Gatik expanded what they describe as North America's largest autonomous middle-mile freight network, growing service to approximately 250 retail locations across three states and signaling a broader shift from autonomous trucking pilots to commercial-scale deployment. 

Sea: Ocean, Ports & Global Freight

• The Port of Los Angeles handled strong May volumes and expects to process more than 900,000 container units in both June and July as importers use a temporary “window of stability” to move goods ahead of renewed uncertainty.
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• Traditional peak season planning is being replaced by multiple overlapping demand waves, with Asia-origin capacity tightening as frontloading, retail events, cost expectations, and disruption risk push shippers to book earlier.
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• U.S. retailers face a potential doubling of all-in ocean service contract costs as $300–$400/FEU bunker increases and proposed $2,000/FEU peak season surcharges layer on top of newly negotiated Asia-U.S. contract rates.
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• DP World entered exclusive talks to design, build, and operate a container terminal at the Port of Corpus Christi, potentially giving the Dubai-based operator its first U.S. terminal project and diversifying a Gulf Coast port historically centered on oil and bulk commodities.

Parcel & Air Cargo

• FedEx will eliminate separate import and export fuel surcharge tables today, raising fuel-fee pressure on export-heavy shippers while lowering import fuel percentages under a unified international surcharge structure.
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• FedEx and China Southern Air Logistics signed an MOU to explore cargo-space, route, fleet, operations, and digitalization cooperation, with analysts saying the partnership could make Guangzhou a key connection point for U.S. shipments into Southeast Asia.
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• Global air cargo spot rates jumped 41% year over year in May to $3.40/kg, but relief may follow as Middle East carrier capacity returns and long-term rates show signs of peaking.
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• FedEx said Vietnam delays eased after a difficult switch to a new ground delivery partner and technology system, but customers had already faced import backlogs, shipment retrieval problems, and warehouse disruption.
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• The Teamsters are preparing grievances against UPS over alleged package diversion to Roadie, a UPS subsidiary that uses gig drivers, escalating a labor dispute over whether delivery work is being shifted outside the union network. 

In a Post-Montgomery World…‍

• Two cases are being watched closely shortly after the landmark Montgomery v. Caribe Transport ruling: 
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  • C.H. Robinson was named in a closely watched Florida broker-liability lawsuit tied to an August 2025 fatal crash, but the company says it did not broker the White Hawk load and did not hire the carrier.
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  • A California jury found three trucking firms liable in a nuclear-verdict case involving a USPS load that was passed down among carriers before a crash, highlighting liability exposure around subcontracting and carrier oversight.

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