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Global Trade & US Policy
Trump’s 100% tariff on China threatens new supply chain shock
Trump floats up to 100% China tariffs by Nov. 1 — Retaliating for Beijing’s new rare-earth export controls, the move could spike costs and delays as shippers reroute to Mexico/India/SEA. With ~40% of U.S. inbound freight from China, imports could tumble, prompting blank sailings and rate volatility. CH Robinson urges resilience (dual sourcing, FTZs/bonded warehouses). U.S.–China goods trade YTD: $420–$440B (vs. >$465B in 2024); China remains top supplier of goods, behind Mexico/Canada in total trade. Imports: electronics/machinery/furniture; exports: ag, aircraft, semiconductors.
China returns fire with retaliatory port fees targeting US-affiliated ships
China to levy port fees on U.S.-linked ships Oct. 14 — Beijing will mirror U.S. measures with charges starting at RMB 400 ($56)/net ton (rising through 2028), targeting U.S.-operated/owned (>25%), U.S.-flagged and U.S.-built vessels; billed at the first Chinese port only, max five voyages/year. Impacted lines could include Matson, Maersk, APL (and some Seaspan charters); by comparison, the U.S. plan is $50/NT + higher of $18/NT or $120/container—and Matson says no surcharge or schedule changes.
Tariff uncertainty to keep lid on US import growth until spring: retailers
NRF: Imports dip below 2M TEUs through Feb after tariff frontloading — Early peak season pulls volumes forward; GPT projects Oct–Feb avg -16% YoY, with monthly totals: Oct 1.97M, Nov 1.75M, Dec 1.72M, Jan 1.87M, Feb 1.77M. Sept prelim: 2.12M TEUs (-6.6% YoY); Aug: 2.32M (≈flat YoY). Full-year now 24.79M TEUs (-2.9% vs. 2024). Retailers say they’re well-stocked; tariff costs may bite as inventories wind down.
Ocean, Air, Rail & Trucking
Lower US imports tightening truck capacity at key inland hubs
Spot TL capacity tightens inland as imports ebb — With fewer import-driven backhauls, inland markets are squeezing capacity and nudging spot rates higher into peak season. U.S. dry van avg hit $1.70/mi (week of Oct. 4), +$0.05 YoY; the Midwest averaged $1.92/mi (about $0.22 above the national 7-day avg). Hot lanes: Las Vegas→LA $2.15/mi (up from $1.96) amid a 45% jump in outbound posts; Stockton→LA $2.45/mi (from $1.74; +33% YoY), and LA→Stockton $3.06/mi (from $2.99). Tightness may be brief, but Q4 spot rates could run hotter if holiday demand firms.
Insurance companies likely to take hard stance on non-domiciled cdls
Non-domiciled CDL crackdown: insurance & legal risk rising — Insurers are expected to bar drivers with non-domiciled CDLs and may target brokers using carriers that employ them, boosting “nuclear verdict” exposure. Underwriting is tightening (license images, domicile match, clean MVRs). Act now: audit drivers/carriers, limit at-risk usage, tighten contracts—state downgrades can void CDLs (and coverage) mid-haul, and brokers face “should-have-known” liability.
Survey reveals top LTL carriers for 2025
Mastio LTL rankings: Daylight repeats; ODFL still No. 1 national — Daylight Transport tops overall LTL for the 2nd year; Old Dominion is the No. 1 national carrier for the 16th straight year, leading 23 of 28 service metrics. Overall leaders: Averitt (#2), ODFL (#3), Peninsula (#4), SEFL (#5), Dayton (#6). Regional winners: Inter-regional—Daylight; NE/Mid-Atlantic—Pitt Ohio; Great Lakes/Midwest—Dayton; South—SEFL; West—Peninsula. Survey: 1,630 shipper interviews; 147 carriers rated; 24 ranked.
Norfolk Southern tweaks international services from West, East coasts
NS trims West Coast, boosts East Coast intermodal (Oct. 20–21) — International moves in Cincinnati consolidate at Sharonville (via Chicago); low-volume West Coast→Cleveland/Detroit lanes are cut while East Coast→Midwest capacity expands. New service Oct. 21: 3x/week Port Liberty Bayonne→Cleveland (plus APM Elizabeth daily); Kansas City shifts to 3x/week originating from Elizabeth, Bayonne, Staten Island.
US tariffs impact seasonal air cargo flows in September
Xeneta: air cargo cools as tariff rush fades — SEA lane spot rates -22% YoY (-2% MoM) despite sourcing shifts; de minimis removal dented e-commerce, pulling capacity from Transpacific. Transatlantic capacity -20% with winter schedules (belly cuts), so any rate firming is supply-led, not demand. Contract mix shifts: 6-month deals up to 22%, >1-year terms down. Q4 likely softer than hoped; 2025 demand +3–4% outlook.
Last Mile & Parcel Freight
With de minimis gone, UPS halts money-back guarantee on US imports
UPS suspends U.S.-bound service guarantees (effective Oct. 2) — Citing delays from the Aug. 29 end of the $800 de minimis rule, UPS has paused money-back guarantees on international services (e.g., Worldwide Express, Worldwide Saver). More formal customs entries are slowing imports—especially those involving FDA/other agencies. UPS has made similar pauses during past disruptions.
Canada Post workers to resume mail delivery, switch to rotating strikes
Canada Post dispute shifts to rotating local strikes — CUPW will move from a nationwide stoppage to local rotating strikes starting Saturday. Canada Post won’t resume delivery until next week and is suspending service guarantees. The union (seeking +19% over 4 years vs. Canada Post’s 13.6%) calls this a compromise after a two-week shutdown, while Ottawa’s cost-cut plan and management decisions face union criticism; customers continue shifting to private carriers.
Mexico’s tariff on Chinese imports rattles cross-border e-commerce
Mexico tightens e-commerce imports — China-origin goods now face 33.5% duties plus stricter data (U.S. seller EIN + Mexican tax ID, proof of U.S.-fulfillment). Enforcement varies by channel/port (some honor USMCA <$50 de minimis, some couriers charge full duty). IMMEX tightened (footwear 25%+), causing slowdowns. Brands are shifting to U.S. fulfillment; <$50 U.S.-fulfilled parcels may gain a price edge.
Veho beefs up parcel sorting capacity for peak season, future growth
Veho ramps up for peak: +50% sort capacity, 10+ new sites — The last-mile courier expanded sorting capacity 50%+ in top markets, added 10+ facilities (incl. a 150k sq ft Atlanta hub) and upsized/reorg’d Philly & Indy (+30–50k sq ft). Throughput is rising 50–100% across key metros; volume >2x vs. 2024 peak. Network now spans 85,000 crowdsourced drivers, and ShipStation integration lets merchants select Veho at checkout.
FedEx expansion at Detroit airport boosts parcel, freight capacity
FedEx doubles air-side capacity in Detroit — Quietly expanded at DTW, consolidating sites into a 300k+ sq ft automated terminal that doubles sort to 12k pkgs/hr, adds 7 widebody gates (up from 3; now 777-capable), and a temp-controlled room for pharma/perishables. Upgrades cut turn times and boost reliability; part of FedEx’s targeted air-network investments despite lower capex.
