IA Insights: December 1, 2025

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Global Trade & US Economy‍

U.S. shoppers spent a record $11.8 billion online this Black Friday

Shoppers spent a record $11.8 billion online this Black Friday, driven by deep discounts and the ease of mobile and AI-powered shopping tools. While in-store traffic dipped, online spending surged — at one point hitting $12.5 million per minute. The trend highlights Black Friday’s shift from traditional doorbusters to a digitally driven holiday shopping kickoff.

US exempts coffee, other agricultural products from Brazil tariffs‍

The U.S. is removing tariffs on hundreds of Brazilian food and agricultural products, including coffee, beef, and spices. The change eases steep costs that had strained import pricing, especially in commodities already hit by climate-driven shortages. The move signals progress in U.S.–Brazil negotiations. Importers should expect lower landed costs and more predictable buying conditions.

US government shutdown stalls import purchase decisions

A prolonged U.S. government shutdown is limiting access to trade data, complicating Lunar New Year purchasing decisions. Importers face a tight ordering window without the visibility they normally rely on. Even with a likely pre-holiday cargo bump, Port of LA volumes are expected to soften year over year. Shippers should brace for planning blind spots heading into early 2026.

Tight capacity expected to keep intra-Asia freight rates aloft through January

Intra-Asia freight rates are climbing and expected to stay high through January as tight capacity meets an extended peak season ahead of Lunar New Year. Carriers are pushing through bi-weekly GRIs, and space is tightening on routes from China to Southeast Asia. With factories closing earlier for the holiday, the pre-Lunar rush will blend directly into peak season pressures. Shippers moving intra-Asia should expect elevated spot rates and limited space through at least mid-February.

CMA CGM poised to venture into India-Russia trade despite war sanctions‍

CMA CGM is finalizing plans to begin accepting India-to-Russia container bookings in January, using subsidiary CNC Line to manage sanctions-related risk. The carrier is expected to route freight via its India–Europe service with transshipment over Hamburg and potential links to St. Petersburg. With lucrative yields on this lane and growing interest from Indian exporters, competition is heating up despite compliance hurdles. Shippers moving pharmaceuticals, food products, or other permitted goods may gain new routing options as capacity expands.

Trucking, Rail & Air‍

UP reaches agreement with IBB union to support NS merger‍

Union Pacific secured backing from the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers for its proposed acquisition of Norfolk Southern, adding to support from three other rail unions. The agreement guarantees job protection for IBB members once regulators approve the $85 billion merger, a key concern in past rail consolidations. While most shopcraft unions are now on board, the major holdout remains the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen. Shippers should expect regulatory debate to intensify as labor, states, and industry groups weigh in on the merger’s potential network impacts.

‘Tis the season for the annual capacity purge‍

The U.S. trucking market is entering its yearly “capacity purge,” a period between Thanksgiving and Valentine’s Day when far more carriers exit the industry than enter it. Seasonal freight slowdowns, harsh winter operating costs, and driver attrition all tighten available capacity, especially with profitability still weak after the prolonged freight recession. This year’s purge may be deeper due to foreign-born drivers leaving the country amid visa uncertainty. Shippers should expect capacity to tighten and tender rejections to rise through mid-February, even without a demand surge.

More than 100 years old, trucking/logistics firm P. Judge files for bankruptcy ‍

P. Judge & Sons, a 100-year-old warehousing and trucking firm, has filed for Chapter 11 but continues operating. The carrier’s high out-of-service rates and financial strain mirror a growing wave of November logistics bankruptcies across the U.S. Several small and mid-sized carriers are also seeking protection as weak freight markets and liabilities mount. Shippers should anticipate continued consolidation and potential service gaps among regional providers.

Parcel & Final Mile

UPS, FedEx, others face long-term effects of MD-11 grounding
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The nationwide grounding of MD-11 freighters is likely to drag on indefinitely, forcing carriers into major inspections and repairs. Western Global Airlines has already furloughed pilots as most of its fleet sits idle, and both UPS and FedEx face capacity strain as they await FAA-approved inspection procedures. Early findings point to fatigue cracks around the engine mount, prompting expanded directives for similar aircraft. Shippers relying on air freight should anticipate capacity tightness and routing challenges until the MD-11 fleet returns to service.

USPS projects package deliveries will drive FY26 revenue boost
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USPS expects nearly 10% package revenue growth in FY26, led by Ground Advantage and more first/last-mile volume. This increase is intended to counter steep drops in international mail shipments. January rate hikes and efficiency initiatives could further shape costs and service levels. Shippers should watch USPS’s strategy as it leans harder into domestic parcels.

FedEx to slash 856 Texas jobs after customer moves business
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FedEx is laying off 856 workers at a Coppell, Texas logistics site after a major 3PL customer moved its business to another provider. The cuts will roll out through late April, though some employees may transition into other FedEx roles. The move reflects a turbulent year in logistics as trade policy shifts reshape supply chains. Shippers should expect continued network adjustments as FedEx restructures and consolidates operations.

TikTok Shop tightens Postal Service shipping options for sellers‍

TikTok Shop will require all USPS labels to be purchased through TikTok Shipping starting in January, cutting off tools like Shopify and ShipStation. The shift may raise costs for small-package sellers who rely on USPS rates. Many brands will likely adopt a hybrid approach, using USPS via TikTok when cheapest and UPS/FedEx when they need control. Shippers should prepare for workflow changes and potential cost impacts.

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