IA Insights: March 2, 2026

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Tariffs

• De minimis still shelved after Supreme Court’s tariff ruling as President Trump reaffirms suspension of the under-$800 duty-free exemption in a new executive order and adjusts postal duty collection to align with a new global tariff despite the Court’s decision invalidating IEEPA-based tariffs.
  
  
• IEEPA tariff decision prompts flood of correction tools for refunds, customs entries with software providers launching calculators and post-summary correction solutions to help importers and brokers estimate claims and file through ACE while courts and CBP determine the formal refund process.
  
  
• FedEx sues US for refunds on Trump tariffs seeking full reimbursement of IEEPA duties paid, reliquidation of affected entries and interest following the Supreme Court’s ruling that the emergency authority did not permit broad-based tariffs.
  
  

Global Supply Chain

• Shipper purchase orders hold steady despite tariff uncertainty with Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka saying forward POs to Asia look stable even as January volume fell year over year and 2026 comparisons remain tough following 2025 frontloading ahead of tariffs and continued trade-policy volatility.
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• Shipping avoids Middle East region after US, Israel begin strikes on Iran as carriers suspend Persian Gulf and Red Sea services, vessels divert from the Strait of Hormuz, missile-related incidents disrupt ports including Jebel Ali, Houthi militants threaten renewed attacks, and major lines impose emergency and war risk surcharges.
  
  
• Air freight rates expected to spike as Iran war escalates with FedEx, Emirates SkyCargo, Qatar Airways Cargo, Cathay and others suspending or rerouting flights, global capacity dropping sharply week over week, and market participants warning of upward pressure on Asia–Europe rates if disruptions persist.
  
  
• Oil climbs in early trading, diesel rising more than crude as ultra low sulfur diesel jumps more than 12% at the open, Brent crude moves higher amid uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz and tanker traffic, insurers reassess Gulf transits, and OPEC+ agrees to accelerate output increases.
  
  
• Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to reroute some March sailings away from Red Sea/Suez as both carriers adjust service networks in response to renewed security risks in the region, diverting select voyages around southern Africa while assessing conditions for a potential return to the Suez route.
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• Iran-backed Houthi warn of new Red Sea attacks after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, raising the risk of renewed drone and missile activity against commercial shipping and further delaying any sustained return to Suez Canal routings.
  

• Near-record imports at top US container port as the Port of Long Beach posts its second-busiest January on late-2025 orders and early frontloading despite double-digit import declines and continued uncertainty following the Supreme Court’s IEEPA tariff decision.

Intermodal & Truckload

• Truckload capacity index moves up as large US carriers shuffle assets as the Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index rose sequentially in the fourth quarter with large carriers adding tractors primarily for dedicated and specialized services rather than one-way freight, even as overall capacity remains near historic lows and fleet rationalization continues.
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• Norfolk Southern, CMA CGM partner on intermodal service as the railroad and ocean carrier launch a Midwest-to–West Coast door-to-door offering managed by Triple Crown Services that uses 40-foot high-cube containers to make rail moves feel more like truck service and shift long-haul freight off highways in lanes including Cleveland/Detroit–Los Angeles and Columbus–Seattle.
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• RXO: TL market seeing ‘biggest structural change’ since deregulation as the broker reports a nearly 19% year-over-year increase in its spot rate index entering Q1, tightening capacity from regulatory enforcement, and tender rejections running ahead of seasonal norms.
  
  
• FMCSA spotlights trucking’s multi-million dollar insurance gap warning Congress that stagnant $750,000 minimum insurance requirements now cover a fraction of median $51 million nuclear verdicts while broker financial responsibility rules tighten.
  
  
• Feds to axe multi-language testing for truckers through planned rulemakings requiring English-only CDL knowledge and skills tests and expanding oversight of non-domiciled licenses, ELD providers and broker qualifications.
  

Parcel Logistics 

• USPS tests picture proof of delivery capability as the Postal Service pilots a Mobile Delivery Device camera feature in parts of Phoenix, New York City, Dallas and Fargo to capture delivery images for verification and dispute resolution even though the photos are not yet customer-facing.
  
  
• UPS begins notifying delivery drivers about optional buyout program offering $150,000 voluntary severance packages to roughly 105,000 drivers as part of a broader 30,000-position workforce reduction tied to network consolidation.
  

• FedEx invests $250M for dedicated parcel hub at new Mumbai airport committing to a 300,000-square-foot facility under a 20-year lease at Navi Mumbai to centralize on-airport processing for western India and support high-value, time-sensitive sectors.
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• ‍DHL prioritizes own cargo jets for pharmaceuticals transport by expanding use of dedicated freighter capacity on key cold-chain lanes, including a Brussels–Cincinnati shuttle, to tighten temperature control and support growth in healthcare logistics.
  
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