IA Insights: August 10, 2026

Macro: Rates, Diesel, Policy & Trade

• Truckload costs remain sharply elevated despite a seasonal easing in spot rates, with the weighted shipper-paid rate up 48% year over year in July and Southwest spending up 39.9% even as regional volume fell 20.2%; meanwhile, benchmark diesel reached $5.348 per gallon, up 77 cents in four weeks, although futures fell rapidly on hopes for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

• A 15% tariff and minimum import prices for polysilicon and specified derivatives will take effect Dec. 4, covering materials used in solar cells and certain semiconductor devices while offering potential tariff relief for companies that submit plans to onshore production.
  
  
• The Commerce Department proposed Section 232 tariffs on 14 additional steel, aluminum and copper derivatives, including 25% duties on most covered products, a 15% rate for certain agricultural trailers and a 50% duty on specified steel containers; comments are due Aug. 27.
  
  
• CBP has returned $100 billion of the $166 billion collected through invalidated IEEPA tariffs, but approximately $11.4 billion tied to finally liquidated entries remains caught in a legal and technical dispute; Amazon received $600 million and will automatically refund customers in limited cases where it can trace passed-through tariff costs, while using other proceeds to lower prices.
  
  
• USMCA remains in force through July 2036 but will undergo annual joint reviews after the US declined to approve a new 16-year term, creating prolonged uncertainty around rules of origin, regional content and duty eligibility for North American manufacturers.

AI Infrastructure: Data Centers Reshape Freight Demand

• Projected US data-center expansion from 24 GW to 110 GW between 2026 and 2030 could generate an estimated 8.6 million truckloads, intensifying competition for open-deck and specialized equipment as trucking capacity contracts; the same demand is benefiting air and contract logistics providers, with DHL reporting 30% operating-profit growth as heavier industrial shipments, tight air capacity and urgent data-center projects increased network utilization and yields.

Land: LTL, Trucking & Warehousing

• The manufacturing PMI reached 55.6 in July, its highest reading since May 2022, as new orders, production and backlogs strengthened; preliminary July tonnage among major LTL carriers rose an average of 5.1% year over year, suggesting industrial recovery is beginning to translate into freight demand.
  
  
• Truck transportation employment ended July at the same 1.465 million jobs recorded in February, while warehousing employment fell by 9,500 jobs during the month and 34,700 year over year, indicating that a meaningful capacity recovery remains distant despite stronger rates and demand signals.

Sea: Ocean, Ports & Global Freight

• US retailers cut their July import forecast to 2.21 million TEUs, more than 10% below the previous projection, as tariff frontloading produced an early peak season; the full-year forecast remains nearly flat at 25.5 million TEUs, up 0.1% from 2025.
  
  
• Ocean carriers continue expanding their control of marine terminals, with recent investments by MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd and ONE reinforcing a decade-long shift that put 44.5% of global terminal capacity under carrier-affiliated operators in 2025.
  
  
• US breakbulk ports remain fluid and largely free of congestion, but project-cargo operators face less predictable vessel schedules, equipment shortages and difficulty securing tonnage from Asia, with disruption at Panama, Caribbean and Asian hubs increasing the risk of multiweek delays for complex moves.
  
  
• Turkey is delaying transit permits for some vessels bound for Russia's Novorossiysk and Ukrainian ports following drone attacks on merchant ships, adding uncertainty to Black Sea grain and oil flows as wheat prices sit near a two-year high.

What's Going on With the Strait of Hormuz?

• Iran and Oman are discussing a 60-day framework to restore commercial traffic, potentially routing inbound vessels near Iran and outbound traffic along Oman without transit fees, but only eight ships crossed on Aug. 5 compared with more than 100 per day before the conflict, and recent tanker incidents continue to suppress shipowner confidence.

Parcel & Last Mile Delivery

• UPS launched a centralized pickup dashboard that lets shippers schedule, manage and track collections with real-time notifications, beginning with on-call pickups and expanding to Smart Pickup notifications in September and daily-pickup alerts later this year.
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• Amazon Business is deploying dedicated delivery trucks in 13 states for consolidated and palletized deliveries to loading docks, extending its regional fulfillment model to better serve commercial rather than residential receiving operations.

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