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Global Trade & US Policy
US formalizes tariffs on trucks, buses
Starting Nov. 1, the U.S. will impose new tariffs: 25% on medium- and heavy-duty trucks and key parts, and 10% on buses, framed as a national-security measure and not stacked on prior sectoral or country tariffs. Offsets include USMCA-based relief (e.g., duty applied only to non-U.S. content for qualifying heavy trucks; temporary exemption for qualifying medium-duty trucks) plus 3.75% annual credits for five years for vehicles finally assembled in the U.S., and extended credits for U.S.-assembled cars through April 30, 2030. Commerce may also cut existing steel/aluminum duties by up to half for USMCA-origin material smelted/cast in Canada or Mexico.
Despite U.S. decline, global container traffic sets new record
Global container volumes hit a new record in August at 16.61M TEUs (surpassing May’s 16.59M), lifting 2025 YTD to 126.75M TEUs (+4.4% vs. 2024) despite a 0.5% dip in North American imports. Growth was broad-based (e.g., Sub-Saharan Africa +16.4%, ISC/ME +8.7%, S./Central America +7.5%, Europe +7.3%), while the CTS Global Price Index eased to 81 (–3 points in August; 115 a year ago) amid Red Sea diversions and new capacity. Bottom line: volumes are resilient and 2025 is outperforming expectations even as pricing softens.
UN postpones decision on shipping carbon tax
The IMO has postponed a vote on its Net-Zero Framework—and a global carbon levy—for one year after U.S. opposition under President Trump, backed by several shipping-focused states, stalled consensus. The NZF would price emissions to drive net-zero by 2050 via annual reporting, penalties for over-emitters, and incentives for cleaner fuels. Experts warn the delay clouds investment in ships, ports, and fuels, risking tighter capacity and more volatile freight rates, even as shipping contributes ~3% of global GHGs.
Strong spending, lean inventories could spur US import rebound in early 2026
Despite today’s turbulence, the outlook is constructive: retailers are running lean, consumer demand is holding, and carriers are retooling services—positioning the market for a restocking-led rebound in early 2026. Expect improving schedule reliability, more balanced capacity, and tighter space on certain lanes as inventories turn and networks normalize.
Ocean, Air, Rail & Trucking
Shippers expect a holiday peak season despite frontloading efforts
Shippers still expect a traditional holiday peak, but timing and intensity will vary after frontloading pulled some volumes forward (J.B. Hunt even added peak surcharges in July). With early imports still working through inland networks and September retail sales up 5.72% YoY (NRF), customers are pushing to hit holiday targets while tariffs reshape freight flows. In a financially strained transport market, shippers are prioritizing carriers that offer agility and predictable execution.
US truckload pricing inches higher as trucking’s peak beckons
Truckload is edging tighter but remains broadly soft: seasonal peaks, freight imbalances, and selective capacity shifts (including the ELP/non-domiciled CDL crackdown) are nudging spot up in pockets—especially long-haul and SoCal/border-westbound lanes—without a market “flip.” Most shippers see 2025 contract rates flat to low-single-digit higher, with the market in a tentative equilibrium that’s vulnerable to small shocks next year; plan for lane-level variability while short-haul capacity stays relatively ample.
California Gov. Newsom vetoes bill that would limit port automation
California Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoed SB 34, which would have blocked public funds for automation at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, saying it would disrupt ongoing emissions negotiations with the South Coast AQMD. The move preserves pathways for modernization and zero-emission upgrades favored by terminal operators, while clashing with the ILWU’s push to limit job-replacing tech.
Ocean freight rates plummet amid China chaos
Trans-Pacific container rates slid again as the China–U.S. trade war escalated: Asia–USWC fell 8% to $1,431/FEU and Asia–USEC dropped 8% to $3,015/FEU, with Asia–Europe also down (–9% to $1,747/FEU). New U.S. port fees on Chinese ships (Oct. 14) and Beijing’s matching tonnage tax are shrinking the pool of vessels willing to call China, prompting diversions like Maersk rerouting U.S.-flag ships to South Korea. Despite carrier countermeasures (GRIs, surcharges, blank sailings), added capacity and softening U.S. import demand are overpowering efforts to firm prices, and rate declines continue.
Last Mile & Parcel Freight
De minimis light? Retailers explore postal shipping in new tariff age
With the Aug. 29 end of de minimis, non-compliant parcels are piling up at UPS and e-tailers are pivoting to international postal channels as a cheaper, compliant alternative. Volumes are still depressed and only a few posts (e.g., DHL Germany, Australia Post) have resumed, but CBP-authorized intermediaries (e.g., Flexport) enable a hybrid strategy—while UPS struggles with documentation and FedEx appears to be coping better.
Amazon hiking fulfillment fees in 2026
Amazon will raise FBA fulfillment fees by an average $0.08 per unit starting Jan. 15, 2026, with granular changes by size/price (e.g., small >$50: +$0.51, small $10–$50: +$0.25, small <$10: +$0.12; large >$50: +$0.31, large $10–$50: +$0.05, large <$10: no change). It’s also adding finer inbound placement tiers and revising bulky/XL structures, citing investments in forecasting, placement, and automation. Beyond FBA, AWD West storage rises to $0.57/ft³, Buy with Prime +$0.24/unit, and MCF +$0.30/unit, with Amazon urging packaging tweaks, cheaper inbound options, and healthy inventory to curb costs.
USPS plans to launch 14 new sorting and delivery centers next month
USPS will open 14 new Sorting & Delivery Centers on Nov. 1—including seven in California (e.g., Sunnyvale, Torrance, Walnut Creek, Newport Beach, Hayward, Inglewood, Murrieta)—consolidating delivery-unit work without closing Post Offices or affecting retail/PO Boxes. Part of the Delivering for America plan, the move directs shippers to drop-ship to the S&DC serving the destination ZIPs and pairs with tech upgrades: six plants are getting parallel induction linear sorters that boost throughput to 7,000 packages/hour (from 3,500), slated to finish by Nov. 20.
