Bright Spirits, Tight Wallets: What Retailers Need to Know About Shifting Shopper Behavior
As Deloitte’s 40th annual Holiday Retail Survey shows, shoppers are entering the 2025 holiday season with optimism in spirit but caution in spending. The study reveals a sobering truth: while the desire to celebrate remains strong, the financial backdrop is forcing consumers to rethink how and where they spend, and that has profound implications for retail operations, logistics networks, and shipping strategies.
The Numbers Behind a Cautious Consumer
The average consumer plans to spend $1,595, a 10% decline from 2024.
Nearly 77% of shoppers expect higher prices on holiday goods, and 57% anticipate the economy will weaken in the next six months—the most pessimistic outlook since 1997..
This combination of economic anxiety and cost sensitivity is driving deal-hunting behavior across every income level. Seven in ten consumers are engaging in three or more value-seeking actions, from stacking discounts to redeeming loyalty points. Even higher-income households are trimming discretionary retail spend and favoring experiences.
For shippers, this shift means more fragmented order patterns, smaller baskets, and tighter delivery windows as shoppers react to flash sales and limited-time offers.
Gen Z and the Digital Holiday Shift
Gen Z continues to redefine the shopping journey. According to Deloitte, 95% of Gen Z shoppers seek deals and 74% turn to social media for inspiration. One in three plan to use generative AI in their shopping process—more than double last year’s rate.
For retailers, the holiday path to purchase is increasingly algorithm-driven. AI-generated recommendations and influencer content now shape shopping lists before consumers even reach a brand’s site. For fulfillment teams, this creates demand for real-time visibility, flexible carrier networks, and the agility to respond to surges triggered by social trends.
Where Value Meets Velocity
Consumers still value convenience, but not at any price.
71% of shoppers say they are willing to wait longer for delivery if it means saving on shipping costs.
This is an important insight for retailers managing peak-season surcharges and capacity constraints.
Big-box and digital-first retailers are positioned to capture the majority of spend, with mass merchants and online retailers leading consumer preference.
Shoppers plan to allocate 56% of their holiday budgets online and 44% in stores, confirming that omnichannel shopping is now the norm.
Retailers and logistics teams should prepare for:
- Concentrated surges: 70% plan to shop during Thanksgiving week.
- Stress-driven decisions: 58% find holiday shopping stressful, and 77% feel frustrated online. Simplified checkouts, flexible returns, and reliable delivery updates can turn friction into loyalty.
What This Means for Retail Supply Chains
For retailers, these consumer trends create new challenges but also clear opportunities for differentiation.
- Dynamic parcel routing will be essential to meet demand for both speed and savings.
- Data-driven carrier diversification can help mitigate surcharges and capacity bottlenecks.
- Predictive analytics can empower retailers to anticipate shipping costs, optimize carrier mix, and maintain service levels.
With smaller order values, earlier purchases, and deal-driven cycles, success this season depends on a retailer’s ability to adjust fulfillment dynamically and balance cost-to-serve with customer expectations.
Value Is the New Loyalty
In 2025, value means more than price. It represents trust, transparency, and reliability. Consumers want confidence that what they buy will arrive when promised and in good condition. Retailers that demonstrate dependability through operational precision will build loyalty long after the season ends.
As Intelligent Audit continues to help leading retailers uncover savings and strengthen shipping performance through data visibility and analytics, one insight stands out:
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