IA Insights: December 22, 2025

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Global Trade, Ports & Ocean‍

• Since ending duty-free de minimis treatment, CBP has collected over $1 billion in duties on low-value imports while increasing enforcement and seizure activity.
  
  
• The Port of Los Angeles expects single-digit volume declines in 2026 as elevated inventories built up from earlier cargo front-loading reduce near-term import demand after a strong 2025.
  
  
• Maersk’s pilot Red Sea transit highlights a gradual, risk-managed reopening of the route, even as most carriers and shippers remain hesitant due to insurance and liability concerns.

Parcel & Last-Mile‍

• USPS plans to open its last-mile network for bids from shippers in an effort to boost revenue, but there’s a lot of skepticism around this strategy. Here’s what shippers should consider.
  
  
• FedEx anticipates a $175 million impact from the MD-11 groundings during peak, but according to CEO Raj Subramaniam, they have “additional contingencies in place” for the final week (the MD-11s are slated to return this spring.
  
  
• Amazon is leveraging its logistics network beyond retail by expanding same-day grocery delivery—now in 2,300 cities—to drive more bundled parcel orders, while also opening its air cargo network to third-party shippers with digital booking tools and on-time delivery guarantees.
  
  
• NYC Delivery Protection Act) that targeted Amazon won’t get taken up in 2025 ‍

Freight Market & Rail‍

• UP, NS Merger vows to create 10,000 single-line service lanes, shift 105k truckloads to rail even though some competitors are still adamantly opposed, citing “far-reaching risks to customers, rail employees and broader supply chains.”
  
  
• The FedEx Freight spinoff is on track for June 1, but weaker volumes and rising costs have materially lowered the unit’s earnings outlook.
  
  
• The freight market is experiencing an unexpected late-2025 upswing, as demand spikes and capacity tightens, driving higher rates and rejection levels into 2026.
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