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Global Trade, Ports & Ocean
- US plans phased semiconductor tariffs on China, setting a 0% rate now that escalates starting mid-2027 on top of existing Section 301 duties, adding longer-term cost and supply chain risk amid already elevated US–China trade tensions.
- Trans-Pacific ocean rates swing as Lunar New Year looms, with blank sailings, pre–Lunar New Year demand, and ongoing Red Sea diversions lifting prices above October lows and pointing to a more durable increase despite short-term volatility.
- Trans-Atlantic capacity injections outpace market demand, as an influx of larger vessels in 2025 pushed supply ahead of volumes, keeping rates near 16-month lows and limiting carriers’ pricing power into 2026.
- Hapag-Lloyd and ONE are expanding their terminal footprints in Brazil and China through new equity stakes, reinforcing access to capacity in key growth and strategic ports while tightening control over critical infrastructure.
Trucking
- Weather-driven HOS waivers expand across much of the US, as winter storms, flooding, and heating fuel supply disruptions prompt FMCSA to relax hours-of-service rules in roughly 40% of states, primarily to support emergency energy and relief shipments through mid-January.
- Regulatory whiplash reshaped trucking in 2025, with aggressive deregulation, tighter CDL enforcement, English proficiency mandates, and renewed scrutiny of non-domiciled drivers signaling a shift from capacity expansion toward safety, compliance, and labor discipline under the Trump administration.
- ATA reverses course as CDL enforcement tightens, backing crackdowns on CDL mills and questionable licensing practices after years of promoting looser standards under the driver shortage narrative, amid rising public scrutiny and political pressure to improve highway safety.
- Persistent overcapacity keeps US truckload rates depressed, as weak freight demand, resilient small carriers, and a slow pace of market exits will keep truckload rates at low levels into 2026, with meaningful recovery unlikely without a sustained rebound in manufacturing and consumer demand.
Parcel & Last-Mile
- Canada Post reaches tentative labor deals with CUPW, setting the stage for service stabilization pending ratification after a year of disruptions, with five-year agreements featuring upfront wage increases, inflation-linked raises, and a new weekend parcel delivery model.
