IA Insights: June 29, 2026

Want these insights in your inbox each Monday? Subscribe here.‍‍

What’s going on with the Strait of Hormuz?

• A Singapore-flagged Evergreen vessel, Ever Lovely, was struck by a projectile while leaving the Strait. No injuries were reported, the vessel remained seaworthy and two other Evergreen ships completed transits safely.
  
  
• The attack prompted the IMO to pause its Persian Gulf vessel evacuation plan while it reconfirms safety guarantees for ships exiting the region. The core issue is whether vessels can move safely under the current U.S.-Iran framework.
  
  
• Current status: Traffic is flowing, but the situation remains fragile. Shippers should expect continued volatility around vessel routing, insurance, bunker fuel, energy-linked transportation costs and timing for a broader return to normal flows.

Global Trade, Tariffs & Benchmark Diesel

• Retailers are accelerating holiday, Halloween, apparel and electronics imports ahead of anticipated tariff changes, driving a surge in cargo through West Coast ports, widening the U.S. goods trade deficit and intensifying competition for vessel space.
  
  
• U.S. goods imports rose in May, while capital goods imports tied to data centers, computers, semiconductors and telecom equipment continued to climb. The data points to a market where some demand is being pulled forward by uncertainty while infrastructure-related imports remain strong.
  
  
• Steel and aluminum producers seeking reduced Section 232 tariffs must now meet a more intensive documentation burden. The process requires capacity-expansion commitments, certified records, milestone tracking and detailed shipment traceability.
  
  
• New duties on chassis from Mexico, Thailand and Vietnam will add to the existing 25% Section 232 tariff on imported chassis. The ITC ruling benefits U.S. manufacturers, but the dissent argued the issue was driven more by pandemic-era production backlogs and timing than by import pricing alone.
  
  
• Diesel fell below $5 per gallon for the first time since early March, offering some relief for shippers whose fuel surcharges are tied to the DOE/EIA benchmark. But diesel remains well above pre-war levels, and the broader energy market is still tied to the pace and stability of the Hormuz reopening. 

Ocean: Surges, Spot Rates & Surcharges

• Ocean spot rates continue climbing as tariff frontloading, constrained capacity, fuel-related surcharges and Middle East disruption overlap. Xeneta said additional capacity is finally entering the market, but warned shippers should not expect that to translate into falling freight rates.
  
  
• The Port of Long Beach reported its third-busiest May on record, with imports up 40% year over year as shippers moved cargo early to get ahead of tariffs, fuel costs and geopolitical uncertainty.
  
  
• Shippers should also review emergency bunker surcharges. Drewry warned that some ocean shippers may be exposed to duplicate fuel recovery as emergency bunker charges overlap with standard BAF mechanisms that are now catching up to earlier fuel spikes. 

Air: China, FedEx

• China Southern ordered seven Boeing freighters, including five 777-8Fs, marking the first known 777-8 freighter purchase by a mainland China carrier. The deal adds another signal that major carriers are still investing in long-term air cargo capacity, especially as high-value and time-sensitive freight demand grows.
  
  
• FedEx has returned some MD-11 freighters to service after aviation authorities cleared the aircraft type, while also retiring older aircraft. The remaining active MD-11s are expected to be ready for peak season, supporting FedEx’s strategy to capture more deferred and premium international air freight. 

Land: LTL boom, FedEx Freight, Flatbed & Rail

• The rush of imports is also creating downstream pressure inland. Importers trying to recover time lost to slow steaming, rerouting and tight ocean capacity are leaning more heavily on expedited LTL and middle-mile networks once freight reaches U.S. ports. Thus, LTL providers are increasingly positioning around ports as importers deconsolidate containers and look for faster inland options.
  
  
• FedEx Freight is moving into what executives called a “hunting phase” after its June 1 spin-off, targeting higher-margin freight in healthcare, grocery, retail, data centers and other specialized sectors.
  
  
• Union Pacific is tightening access to domestic intermodal capacity in Southern California and other key freight markets. Beginning July 5, shippers exceeding weekly equipment allocations will face peak surcharges, while constrained-market designations in California, Chicago and Laredo continue to limit access to rail-owned containers. The changes signal ongoing equipment pressure as import volumes build heading into peak season.
  
  
• Flatbed and open-deck capacity is tightening as data center, power generation and infrastructure projects drive demand for structural steel, rebar, switchgear, generators, transformers and other heavy equipment. DAT data showed flatbed rates rising while dry van and refrigerated rates softened.
  
  
• CSX completed its $495 million Howard Street Tunnel expansion in Baltimore, enabling full double-stack rail clearance at the Port of Baltimore. The project removes a long-standing constraint for shippers connecting freight between the port and inland markets. 

Parcel: FedEx, UPS & USPS

• Healthcare logistics is becoming a strategic growth market:
  
  
  • FedEx launched FedEx Life Sciences to expand its healthcare and pharmaceutical capabilities
    ‍
    
  • UPS invested $48 million in 27 new temperature-controlled transfer facilities, strengthening its global cold-chain network.
    ‍
    
• FedEx continues shifting toward higher-value parcel volume, reporting nearly $10 billion in healthcare transportation revenue in fiscal 2026 while citing growth across healthcare, aerospace, automotive, data centers and other premium transportation services.
  
  
• FedEx plans to begin issuing tariff refunds to eligible customers in August. The refunds follow court decisions affecting certain import duties and may provide recovery opportunities for shippers that paid qualifying tariffs.
  
  
• UPS is exploring third-party parcel delivery in the U.K. The move reflects continued efforts to optimize delivery networks while balancing labor costs, operating efficiency and service flexibility.
  ‍
  
• The Teamsters won an initial NLRB victory over Amazon involving card-check recognition at a San Francisco warehouse, but the case is likely headed into a more difficult appeal process. The issue remains a watchpoint for labor, classification and logistics network control.
  ‍
• USPS says it has bought more time before a cash crisis, but Postmaster General David Steiner told Congress the agency’s self-funded model remains unsustainable without reform or federal support. For parcel shippers, USPS instability remains important because postal pricing, service levels and lightweight parcel alternatives influence the broader parcel market. 

Regulation, Compliance & Risk

• FMCSA is removing several administrative requirements while continuing to emphasize enforcement. Recent changes eliminate CDL violation self-reporting, remove the requirement to keep printed ELD manuals in trucks and reduce certain inspection-report paperwork when states do not require it.
  
  
• An apparent FMCSA system error has triggered unexpected safety audit notices for some long-established trucking companies. A recent SafeSpect update appears to have misclassified veteran carriers as new entrants, highlighting how system changes can create compliance headaches even for fleets with long operating histories. FMCSA is investigating the issue.
  
  
• Cargo theft continues to evolve in both sophistication and scale. Recent cases involving carrier impersonation, organized theft rings and the theft of England's World Cup equipment highlight how increasingly coordinated schemes are exploiting weaknesses in carrier verification, chain-of-custody controls and shipment security.