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US Trade & Global Economy
- The U.S. and Japan are expanding cooperation on critical minerals to reduce supply chain risk and strengthen energy security, including plans for coordinated trade policies, stockpiling, and global partnerships.
- China has launched new probes into U.S. trade practices, signaling renewed trade tensions and potential disruption to global supply chains and green technology markets ahead of key leadership meetings.
- The EU has approved its trade deal with the U.S. but added strict safeguards to protect against tariff volatility and ensure compliance, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in global trade policy.
Direct Effects of US-Iran War: Fuel Costs & Pricing Pressure
- A month into the Iran conflict is reshaping the global economy, driving higher oil prices, inflation risk, and widespread disruption across air travel and supply chains as energy shocks ripple through nearly every industry.
- Diesel prices have surged past $5 per gallon nationwide, significantly increasing transportation costs and putting immediate pressure on carriers, shippers, and overall freight economics.
- Rising diesel costs and tightening capacity are putting a floor under trucking rates, with early signs of demand recovery beginning to emerge after a prolonged freight downturn.
- USPS is implementing an 8% temporary rate increase across key shipping services as it responds to rising fuel and transportation costs, signaling broader pricing pressure across parcel networks. *See Joe's take on what shippers should be considering.
- Regulators rejected ocean carriers’ attempts to fast-track war-related surcharges, requiring stronger cost justification before fees can be passed on to shippers.
Freight Market & Capacity
- Freight bankruptcies continue to rise across trucking, logistics, and marine transportation, highlighting ongoing financial strain and pointing toward potential consolidation across the supply chain.
- Union Pacific is adjusting intermodal pricing to better compete with rising truckload rates, aiming to win back freight volume as cost dynamics shift between modes.
- Cold storage vacancies have reached a 20-year high as pandemic-era overbuilding meets weaker demand, creating financial pressure for operators and likely shakeout among newer entrants.
Risk, Regulation & Labor
- Freight risk is evolving as loads can pass every verification check and still be compromised, underscoring the need for real-time, human-level validation beyond documents and systems.
- UPS is rolling back its driver buyout program in 13 states following union resistance, highlighting ongoing labor tensions as the company adjusts its workforce strategy.
- A proposed bill to eliminate federal diesel emissions requirements could lower equipment and compliance costs for carriers, while raising concerns about increased pollution and long-term environmental impact.
