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Top News: UPS Crash, Recovery, and MD-11 Groundings
Deadly crash halts UPS Worldport operations
A UPS MD-11 cargo jet crashed after takeoff from Louisville on Tuesday, Nov. 4, killing at least 14 people, including three crew members. The aircraft, bound for Honolulu, lost an engine and went down near the company’s Worldport hub, sparking a large fire and suspending operations at UPS’s largest air facility. The NTSB has recovered flight recorders and begun its investigation.
UPS resumes limited flights amid delays
UPS restarted night sort operations Wednesday to restore next-day air service but extended delivery commitments by 90 minutes and suspended its money-back guarantee through Friday. Two of three Louisville runways have reopened, allowing gradual recovery. The U.S. Postal Service, which relies on UPS air transport, warned of possible delays.
UPS, FedEx ground MD-11 fleets
Following Boeing’s safety advisory, UPS and FedEx have grounded their MD-11 aircraft—roughly 9% and 4% of their fleets—while inspections continue. Both carriers said contingency plans are in place to maintain service. The temporary move adds further strain to U.S. air cargo capacity amid ongoing FAA flight reductions.
Global Trade & US Economy
Supreme Court questions Trump’s tariff powers in landmark case
Justices signaled skepticism Wednesday over former President Trump’s use of the 1977 IEEPA law to impose tariffs under a self-declared national emergency. The case, brought by small businesses and states, challenges whether the statute grants presidents unlimited trade authority. Several justices, including Roberts, Barrett, and Gorsuch, questioned if IEEPA’s language was ever meant to authorize tariffs. A ruling against Trump could force billions in tariff refunds and curb executive trade powers.
U.S. imports forecast to fall through early 2026
After front-loading shipments to get ahead of tariffs, U.S. imports are expected to decline through early 2026. The National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker projects December imports will hit 1.75 million containers—the lowest since March 2023—with further year-over-year drops forecast into the first quarter. Despite the slowdown, retailers’ early efforts appear to have stabilized supply chains and prices heading into the holidays. NRF expects holiday sales to reach roughly $1 trillion, up 3.7%–4.2% from last year.
GXO eyes expansion as tariffs bolster demand for foreign trade zones
GXO Logistics says new U.S. tariffs are spurring demand for Foreign Trade Zones, where companies can delay duties until goods ship to customers. CEO Patrick Kelleher said the company is expanding its FTZ footprint and exploring acquisitions to grow its North American and industrial presence. GXO reported record Q3 revenue of $3.4 billion, up 8% year over year, as inventories normalize after early tariff-driven imports.
Ocean, Air, Rail & Road
US LTL ‘land rush’ reaches its end amid long-term freight decline
The U.S. LTL “land rush” is winding down as bankrupt Yellow nears the end of its terminal sell-off and demand softens. Despite hundreds of terminal sales, industry capacity remains about 10% below 2020 levels, helping sustain higher pricing—LTL rates rose 10.5% year over year in August. Carriers like Saia, Estes, and XPO have expanded aggressively, while others, including Old Dominion and Knight-Swift, are pausing growth plans amid weaker freight volumes and a cautious outlook for 2025.
Large US truckload carriers trim tractor counts to control capacity
U.S. truckload carriers are cutting capacity to align with soft freight volumes and protect margins. The Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index fell to a record low of 72.4% in Q3. Carriers expect further tightening as stricter driver licensing rules push smaller operators out, prompting larger fleets to focus on dedicated business and efficiency.
FAA’s air traffic cuts aren’t hampering cargo flows — yet
The FAA’s order to cut air traffic by 10% at 40 major U.S. airports is expected to have limited short-term impact on cargo, though experts urge shippers to prepare backup plans. International flights are exempt, and carriers such as UPS, FedEx, and Delta say most of their operations occur outside restricted hours. Still, reduced domestic passenger flights could temporarily tighten belly cargo capacity and extend transit times if the government shutdown persists.
Air freight growth remains solid as verticals support nonstop momentum
Air cargo demand rose for the 26th straight month in October, driven by e-commerce, tech, and aerospace sectors. Executives at Tiaca’s Air Cargo Forum said growth should continue into 2026 despite tariff and geopolitical risks, with carriers quickly adapting to shifting trade flows and strong volumes out of Southeast Asia.
Trump support likely to get UP-NS deal approved
Former STB Chair Daniel Elliott III said the proposed $85 billion Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger is “leaning toward approval,” citing President Trump’s backing and board alignment. The deal has divided the rail industry, with BNSF and CPKC opposed while CSX, CN, and major unions support it. Elliott warned approval could trigger further consolidation across U.S. freight rail.
New trade deals, and ‘tenuous stability’ for ocean freight
Recent U.S.–China trade talks eased tariffs and paused costly port fees, but freight demand on the trans-Pacific remains weak. Eastbound rates from Asia to the West Coast slipped 1% to $1,999 per FEU, while East Coast rates rose 4% to $3,628, per the Freightos Baltic Index. Analysts say high tariffs, sourcing shifts away from China, and early frontloading continue to suppress volumes. Carriers are relying on rate hikes and blank sailings to stabilize prices, with any sustained recovery unlikely before 2026.
Last Mile & Parcel Freight
Veho, Jitsu and Gofo add capacity pre-holiday shipping rush
Regional parcel carriers are scaling up to capture peak-season demand as shippers look beyond FedEx and UPS. Veho has expanded capacity in 15 cities, adding major hubs in Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Indianapolis. Jitsu increased warehouse space in San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Dallas, with systems now able to handle triple its normal volume. Gofo opened a 400,000-square-foot “Super Hub” in New Jersey—its largest facility—to anchor East Coast deliveries. Together, these moves position emerging carriers to absorb holiday volume and win share in the competitive parcel market.
