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UPS released their 2026 GRI to take effective Dec. 22 (before Christmas!), and while it appears it's matching FedEx's 5.9%, it goes way deeper than that; see Cory Davis' anaylsis here.
Global Trade & US Economy
Trump Meets With Xi, Declares Immediate Cut to Tariffs
President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping struck a temporary truce in the U.S.-China trade war after their first in-person meeting in six years. The deal cuts U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods by 10 percentage points in exchange for Beijing’s pledge to curb fentanyl chemical exports, ease rare earth export restrictions, and buy large volumes of U.S. soybeans. Both sides also paused new port fees and export restrictions for a year. While the agreement eases tensions, analysts say it falls short of a broader reset, as deep economic and geopolitical divides between the two countries persist.
Trade deal could boost short-term China imports, but uncertainty lingers
The new one-year U.S.-China trade deal is prompting some retailers to rush short-term imports while keeping long-term sourcing plans unchanged amid continued uncertainty. Revelyst and other importers shifted freight from air to ocean to save costs, but tariffs on most Chinese goods remain high—around 47%—keeping interest in alternatives like Vietnam strong. Industry experts say the deal’s limited scope and short duration will drive temporary import spikes rather than lasting supply chain shifts.
US, Japan sign framework for critical mineral supply
The U.S. and Japan signed a new framework to secure supplies of critical minerals and rare earths essential to their industries. The plan calls for joint investments in mining, processing, and recycling projects, plus a rapid response group to address supply risks. Both nations aim to reduce reliance on China, which dominates global rare earth production, and will select and fund key projects within six months.
Fed trims main rate by a quarter point
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 3.75%–4%, marking its second reduction this year amid signs of a cooling labor market. Chair Jerome Powell noted differing opinions within the Fed on future moves, with one member favoring a deeper cut and another opposing any change. Powell emphasized that another rate cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion.”
Is the goods economy in a recession? Freight data suggests so
FreightWaves data shows the U.S. economy is mired in a goods recession, with freight demand plunging 18% year over year to pandemic-era lows. Long-haul trucking volumes have fallen 30% as manufacturing and industrial output stall, even while retail holds steady. FreightWaves founder Craig Fuller warns that the slowdown reflects deeper economic weakness masked by stock market gains, calling it a “K-shaped economy.” Still, a federal crackdown on unqualified drivers could remove excess capacity and finally end the prolonged freight downturn.
Ocean, Air, Rail & Road
Covenant sees bids at ‘all-time highs,’ CEO says
Covenant Logistics reports bids up 17% since August as shippers brace for tighter trucking capacity. CEO David Parker says early bid activity reflects concern over carrier exits driven by new federal driving and language rules. While capacity cuts could rebalance the market, rising costs may squeeze margins, and contract rates remain mostly flat for now.
Top LTL carriers maintain profit while planning paths to freight recovery
U.S. less-than-truckload carriers are holding firm on pricing despite weak freight demand. Old Dominion, XPO, and Saia all reported higher revenue per hundredweight in Q3, signaling pricing discipline even as shipment volumes fell. Executives said customers are increasingly concerned about future capacity and expect improvement by 2026. For now, the market remains flat, with carriers focused on profitability and network expansion rather than chasing volume growth.
UPS volumes grow overseas in Q3 as China-to-US shipments drop 27%
UPS’ international revenue rose 5.9% in Q3 on strong demand in Europe and the Americas, while U.S. volumes and revenue fell amid high tariffs and weaker trade with China. Executives said global flows are shifting away from the U.S. as UPS streamlines operations, closes facilities, and adapts to new customs rules and reduced Amazon business.
CPKC-CSX target 2026 as big year for Mexico-Texas-East Coast trade
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and CSX are finishing major Gulf Coast track upgrades that will enable faster, truck-competitive intermodal service between Mexico, Texas, and the U.S. Southeast by early 2026. The $100 million project will cut Atlanta-to-Dallas transit to about 30 hours and strengthen partnerships with shippers like Schneider National.
CPKC slams UP, NS on Meridian congestion, merger plans
CPKC is escalating its dispute with Union Pacific (UP) and Norfolk Southern (NS) over congestion on the shared Meridian Speedway in Louisiana and Mississippi, accusing the carriers of running overly long trains that disrupt service. CEO Keith Creel also reiterated CPKC’s opposition to the proposed UP–NS merger, warning it would give the pair excessive control of U.S. rail traffic.
Last Mile & Parcel Freight
UPS, Postal Service reach ‘preliminary agreement’ in Ground Saver talks
UPS and the U.S. Postal Service have reached a preliminary deal for USPS to handle last-mile delivery for UPS’ Ground Saver service. CEO Carol Tomé said both sides agreed on key terms around volume and rates, with final details expected soon. She added that UPS remains confident the partnership will maintain its best-in-class service levels.
2,000 drivers left UPS after taking buyouts, analyst says
Roughly 2,000 unionized UPS drivers accepted voluntary buyouts in Q3, costing the company about $175 million. The offer, averaging around $86,000 per driver, was part of UPS’s broader effort to streamline operations amid lower package volumes and reduced business from Amazon. Including warehouse and management cuts, UPS has eliminated about 48,000 jobs over the past 18 months to boost efficiency.
New Amazon cargo flight paves way for next-day delivery in Hawaii
Amazon has launched next-day delivery on Oahu, supported by a new late-night flight operated by Alaska Airlines. The company also plans a 42,000-square-foot distribution center on Kaua‘i and has begun building a 3.2 million-square-foot fulfillment center in Connecticut, expanding its U.S. logistics network.
DHL Express invests $90M in New York delivery upgrades
DHL Express is investing $90 million to boost capacity and efficiency in the New York City area, one of its busiest U.S. markets. The company will relocate its Manhattan operations to a new 92,000-square-foot Jersey City facility and expand its Brooklyn site, doubling processing speeds at both. A new Newark flight connection will also shorten transit times and enhance service reliability across the region.
Innovation
Waabi has successfully integrated its AI-powered Waabi Driver into Volvo’s purpose-built VNL Autonomous truck, marking a major step toward commercial rollout. The collaboration combines Waabi’s self-driving technology with Volvo’s redundant safety systems to enable fully autonomous operations. With the integration complete, both companies are preparing for broader deployment, including a driver-out milestone by year-end, as Waabi continues scaling under new COO and former Uber Freight chief Lior Ron.
