Stalled Spending in 2025: What the Data Reveals
Federal data confirms that U.S. consumer spending stagnated in the second quarter of 2025—suggesting little to no growth even as employment remained strong. Executives at Chipotle, Kroger, and Procter & Gamble report pronounced shifts: households trading down, clipping coupons, and shifting toward generic brands. P&G CFO Andre Schulten sums it up: “We see consumption trends consistently decelerating,” even for everyday essentials.
Consumer Anxiety Across All Income Levels
Consumers at both ends of the income spectrum are tightening belts. Some families are reducing nonessential items—cutting vacations, skipping minor indulgences, and thinking longer about even a $5 coffee. According to McKinsey’s recent “State of the Consumer 2025,” retailers across categories—from grocery to apparel and hospitality—are seeing demand soften as consumer confidence continues to undercut discretionary spending.
Inflation and Tariffs: Dual Drivers of Consumer Caution
McKinsey's ConsumerWise survey finds that 43% of U.S. consumers rank inflation as their top concern, with tariffs cited by 29%—making tariff policies the second-most reported worry. Many shoppers anticipate making changes even before those tariff-driven price increases fully materialize: Gen Z and millennial consumers are especially likely to delay discretionary purchases or buy second-hand, while baby boomers are less responsive.
Back‑to‑School 2025: Budgeting and Bargain Sensibility
Epsilon’s Back to School 2025 report reveals that 69% of parents set spending budgets this year—a 10 percentage-point rise from 2024. More parents plan to shop early: 43% started in late July or early August. 60% expect to spend more overall, with 70% hunting discounts and 45% using coupons. Ratings and rewards influence shopping decisions for nearly 59%.
Interestingly, fewer families plan to buy new backpacks and lunchboxes—down from 78 percent in previous years to 67 percent now—which points to reuse or resale strategies lining up with frugality.
Generational Spending Behavior: Shifts by Age Cohort
Gen Z and millennials are altering habits most sharply—trading down brands, delaying discretionary purchases, or opting for second-hand items to cope with inflation and tariffs. Baby boomers, while also concerned about inflation, maintain relatively stable spending habits and show less behavioral change in response to economic uncertainty.
Why These Shifts Matter for Shippers
Volumes are more volatile. As consumers delay or accelerate based on value or promotions, shipment demand will no longer follow stable seasonal curves.
Promotions drive spikes. Back-to-school, coupon campaigns, loyalty events—all can trigger sharp but temporary shipping surges, especially when shoppers chase deals.
Tariff- and inflation-related uncertainty requires flexibility. Logistics planning needs to anticipate sudden shifts in consumer sentiment and sourcing behavior, including last-minute stockpiling of value goods.
Trend Recap: What Shippers Should Remember
- Spending is stagnant.
- Inflation and tariffs dominate consumer concern.
- Families are budgeting more than ever.
- Younger generations are adapting fastest through delayed, downsized, or secondhand consumption.
Adapting in a Value‑Driven Market
Today’s consumers are cautious but still willing to spend—if they see value, savings, and flexibility. Traditional logistics models focused on volume predictability must evolve.
As McKinsey notes, “most consumers surveyed... said they expect to change their spending habits” in light of tariff pressure—even before price effects appear. Shippers who can adapt to dynamic demand, support promotional cycles, and pivot quickly in the face of policy-driven disruption will be better positioned.
Join our webinar: Q3 Essential Insights for Shippers with Bart De Muynck
In today’s fast-moving shipping environment, staying informed is essential. This webinar will break down the most important trends shaping the logistics space—from parcel network shifts to trade disruptions and the evolving role of AI.
You'll gain expert insights into how leading shippers are navigating complexity, reducing costs, and making smarter, data-driven decisions in Q3 and beyond.
