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Global Trade & US Policy
Trump slaps tariffs on imported lumber, timber and furniture
The Trump administration announced new tariffs on imported wood products effective Oct. 14: 10% on softwood lumber and timber, and 25% on kitchen cabinets, vanities, and upholstered wood furniture, with rates potentially rising on Jan. 1 to as high as 50% on some cabinet items absent trade agreements. Canada is especially exposed given $11.59B in 2024 U.S. wood imports, and furniture makers in Vietnam, China, and Mexico face risk as the U.S. imported $12.2B in household furniture in the first half, while critics warn of higher costs for consumers and builders.
How truck tariffs might play out for the industry
A 25% U.S. tariff on trucks said to take effect Oct. 1, with the impact hinging on whether parts are covered and how it interacts with USMCA and existing duties. Most medium and heavy trucks are already assembled in North America, but manufacturers warn stacking tariffs and parts exposure could raise costs even as the policy aims to protect domestic producers.
What DOT’s shutdown plan means for trucking
DOT’s shutdown plan keeps core trucking and highway functions running, since FMCSA and FHWA are funded via the Highway Trust Fund and IIJA; FMCSA’s 1,084 employees and FHWA’s 2,268 remain on duty, and NHTSA work continues. Hazmat oversight persists with PHMSA operating on reduced staff, MARAD maintains key programs, while other modes face sharper cuts, including large FAA furloughs with controllers and inspectors still working and FRA focusing on safety investigations.
Ocean, Air, Rail & Trucking
Trade war? Savannah containers near record volume
Port of Savannah moved 534,037 TEUs in August, up 9% year over year and the third-highest month in its history, with FYTD volumes at 1,010,725 TEUs, up 3.2% from 2024. GPA has launched a fast-track vessel routing that saved 12–15 hours on its first call and aims to cut idle time to three hours, while advancing $614M in Ocean Terminal upgrades within a $4.5B, 10-year plan including a $1.54B overhaul and 3.5M TEUs of added capacity by 2030.
Asia-West Coast container rates plummet; demand seen waning through year-end
Spot rates are sliding as demand stays soft through year end, with Asia to West Coast down 15% to $1,853 per FEU last week and East Coast up 16% to $3,967, while SONAR’s inbound ocean volume index on Oct. 1 was down 14.58% year over year despite a small Golden Week frontload. Carriers have blanked about 13% of sailings and face tariff uncertainty, with a current pause holding duties near 55% but a Nov. 14 snapback could push them toward roughly 145% on Chinese goods and 125% on U.S. exports, alongside potential Chinese port fees and ship bans.
Post-tariff air freight market diversifies into ‘US-plus one’ strategy: Tiaca
US tariffs and the removal of de minimis on low-value Chinese imports are reshaping air cargo, with a “US-plus one” shift in consumption and production diversification into Southeast Asia as carriers redeploy capacity and e-commerce platforms pivot more volume to Europe. Global spot rates fell 4% year over year in September to $2.54/kg, Shanghai to Europe rates were flat at $4.20/kg, Shanghai to Chicago fell 9% to $5.10/kg, and analysts expect continued volatility into peak season with Asia to Europe likely to outperform.
Drayage capacity could tighten quickly under tougher regulations
US drayage is soft with plenty of capacity to start Q4, but tighter conditions could come fast as regulators crack down on non-domiciled CDLs and English-language proficiency, with California ordered to halt new non-domiciled CDLs and review existing licenses within 30 days. Since June, about 3,000 drivers have been placed out of service for ELP violations during more than 7,000 inspections, and executives warn stricter enforcement plus low rates and rising costs could push small carriers out, making drayage planning more critical for importers.
Last Mile & Parcel Freight
Amazon Shipping preps higher peak season surcharges
Amazon Shipping will introduce peak-season surcharges from Oct. 26 to Jan. 17, with higher fees between Nov. 23 and Dec. 27, covering per-package, large-package, extra-heavy, and extra-handling shipments. The 2025 surcharges are higher than last year’s, though without a volume-based fee, as Amazon looks to offset holiday operational costs while maintaining delivery reliability.
DoorDash offers fulfillment service for retailers
DoorDash launched DashMart Fulfillment Services, giving retailers end-to-end fulfillment from inventory through picking, packing, and delivery via Dashers, with CVS and Party City onboard and Kroger coming soon. It also introduced a road-capable delivery robot, an autonomous delivery platform, and a smart scale to boost order accuracy.
