IA Insights: September 28, 2026

Macro: Fuel, Rates, Trade & Policy

• Transportation costs are climbing across trucking, rail, parcel and ocean shipping, with diesel reaching a record $6.529 per gallon and higher fuel surcharges raising truckload and LTL costs even as futures markets offer tentative signs of relief.
   
• The U.S. and China agreed to extend their trade truce until Jan. 10, 2027, while also announcing tariff reductions covering $30 billion in nonsensitive trade; the extension is expected, but not yet formally confirmed, to delay proposed U.S. port fees on Chinese-built vessels.
  
  
• Most businesses receiving refunds from invalidated IEEPA tariffs are retaining the cash or investing it in operations, with 75% keeping at least some refunds as cash and 52.5% directing funds toward research, development or capital projects.
  
  
• Plastic packaging producers face new tariff exposure and classification uncertainty, with about 20% of the $15 billion U.S.-Canada plastics trade exposed to 50% tariffs and volatile costs creating margin risk for fixed-price orders.
  
  
• Kuehne + Nagel and Amazon signed a long-term logistics and cloud-infrastructure agreement, expanding their relationship into AWS construction, equipment deployment, maintenance and upgrades while deepening operational integration between the companies.

Land: Trucking, Rail & Intermodal

• Old Dominion Freight Line will raise select non-contractual LTL tariff rates 4.9% on Oct. 5, as LTL costs, including fuel and accessorial charges, continue to rise despite still-soft freight volumes.
  
  
• 71% of surveyed shippers plan to expand their private fleets, using in-house capacity to improve control, support customer service and gain leverage as for-hire truck capacity contracts and spot rates rise.
  
  
• Shippers are increasingly evaluating port-to-inland routes to diversify gateways, reduce empty truck miles and use available Gulf Coast rail capacity instead of relying exclusively on congested coastal corridors.
  
  
• U.S. intermodal volume increased 6.9% year over year in the week ending Sept. 19, while total rail traffic rose 4.9%; through 37 weeks, intermodal volume was up 4.1%.
  
  
• Union Pacific deployed its first two battery-electric locomotives in Southern California, beginning real-world testing of switching and local-service operations before two additional units arrive in October.
  
  
• Parallel Systems advanced its autonomous battery-electric railcar pilot to a fourth testing phase, adding remote supervision and more complex infrastructure as it evaluates shorter-haul container movements across a planned 160-mile Georgia corridor.
  
  
• Aurora is targeting more than 30,000 driverless trucks by 2030, but carrier partners say the economics still depend on lower technology costs and greater operating scale.

Sea: Ocean, Ports & Waterways

• Amazon launched Standard Ocean Express, routing imports through Los Angeles and then directly by rail to East Coast fulfillment centers to improve inventory availability and reduce stockout risk.
  
  
• DP World says trade through Jebel Ali has fallen 90% since the Strait of Hormuz closed, costing the company an estimated $90 million in monthly profit and prompting new road, rail and port investments to reroute essential cargo through the Gulf of Oman, Red Sea and Turkey.
  
  
• A return to normal Suez Canal routings and a surge of new vessel deliveries could create significant excess container capacity in 2027, with 3.2 million TEUs of new ships scheduled for delivery and the global fleet projected to reach 37.7 million TEUs.
  
  
• Ocean carriers have announced fewer Golden Week blank sailings than in the previous three years, although analysts expect more last-minute cancellations as Suez routings restore capacity and carriers adjust October schedules.
  
  
• The Vincent Thomas Bridge at the Port of Los Angeles will close Nov. 1 for 16 months, adding congestion risk as rail container dwell times sit at a 17-month high and strong imports continue through the Los Angeles-Long Beach complex.
  
  
• Brazil is requiring ocean carriers to substantiate the costs behind low-water surcharges, creating a potential model for greater scrutiny of extraordinary fees tied to draft restrictions on the Amazon, Rhine, St. Lawrence and Panama Canal.
  
  
• Record-low Rhine River levels are sharply restricting barge capacity, pushing cargo toward already-constrained rail and truck networks while increasing transit times, rates, container repositioning costs and exposure to demurrage and detention.

Parcel Carrier News

• FedEx’s 2027 GRI extends well beyond its 5.9% average package-rate increase, with service- and zone-specific increases, a more than 70% expansion of its Remote Delivery Area Surcharge footprint and additional zone-classification changes taking effect Feb. 1.
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• USPS warned of temporary package delays around Indianapolis and Louisville as it installs new sorting equipment and diverts volume to alternate facilities ahead of peak season.
  
  
• USPS lost an estimated $163 million over 12 months because some e-commerce fulfillment centers refused undeliverable returns, shifting return postage and disposal costs to the Postal Service as packages entering its recovery center rose 45%.
  
  
• UPS-Teamsters and West Coast port labor contracts will expire one month apart in 2028, creating the possibility of overlapping parcel and port disruptions during an election year and ahead of peak shipping season.

Fraud

• 41% of surveyed loss-prevention leaders report annual cargo-theft losses of at least $1 million, while fraudulent pickups, carrier impersonation and GPS interference are making shipment-data security as important as physical controls.
  
  
• The FBI and Coast Guard are investigating suspected foreign cyberattacks against two tankers entering U.S. waters, although officials reported no operational disruption, vessel instability or environmental impact.